Israel's president has handed the first chance at forming the next government to the opposition, not to Benjamin Netanyahu. President Isaac Herzog said Saturday that Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who ran as Netanyahu's main challenger, will get the first opportunity to assemble a governing coalition after the October 27 election, according to the Los Angeles Times. The formal mandate ceremony was set for Sunday at the president's residence in Jerusalem.
The designation is a procedural step, not a government. Under Israeli practice, the leader tasked with forming a coalition needs 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, and Eisenkot will have 28 days to find them, with a possible 14-day extension before the mandate passes to someone else, as RFI reported. If neither side succeeds, the country heads to fresh elections — an outcome Israelis know well, having held five elections between 2019 and 2022 over repeated deadlocks.
What makes this designation meaningful is the arithmetic behind it. Parties representing 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, against 46 for Netanyahu's bloc, according to Al-Monitor. But those recommendations are not the same as coalition commitments, and the gap between the two numbers is where the entire negotiation now lives.
Why did the president pick the opposition first?
Because the recommendation count favored Eisenkot. Herzog consulted with all parties during the week before deciding, and the Israeli presidency said he met separately with Eisenkot and Netanyahu before informing both of his decision, according to Shafaq News. Giving the first mandate to the candidate with the larger recommendation tally is the expected move; the president's real decision will come later, if Eisenkot fails and Herzog must choose whether to extend the clock or hand the mandate to Netanyahu.
What is the actual seat math?
The blocs did not win majorities on their own. Netanyahu's bloc secured 53 seats and the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot won 48, with Arab parties collectively taking 19 seats in the election for the 26th Knesset, according to Shafaq News. That leaves the Arab-led parties as potential kingmakers — and politically fraught ones. An Arab party has been part of a governing coalition just once in Israel's history, the Los Angeles Times noted. We covered a connected angle in How California Recalls a Governor: The Rules Behind the State's Rareest Election.
There is a second, softer version of the math: a "minority" government, shored up by external support from Arab parties that sit outside the coalition. Some members of Eisenkot's own bloc have said they would reject even that arrangement, per the Los Angeles Times. Avigdor Liberman, a bloc member and former Netanyahu aide turned critic, has made clear he will not sit in a government that relies on Israeli-Arab votes, according to Al-Monitor.
What is the surprise opening to the ultra-Orthodox?
The most consequential shift of the week came from Liberman, not Eisenkot. Liberman and another opposition leader, Naftali Bennett, had made closing the military-service exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews a core campaign promise, and had criticized ultra-Orthodox communities as burdens on the state while reservists serve multiple tours in Gaza and Lebanon. On Friday, Liberman reversed course and said he was open to discussions on a law that would enshrine the exemption, RFI reported.
Eisenkot has prepared his own bridge. He has proposed requiring national service for all Israelis while letting citizens choose a civilian option instead of the military — an opening that could bring ultra-Orthodox parties into a coalition without abolishing the exemption outright. That flexibility is what could turn 48 seats into 61. It is also the kind of compromise that could outrage his own voters, a risk the Los Angeles Times flagged directly.
What is Netanyahu's counterplay?
A unity government — but only on his terms. Netanyahu has called for a national unity government while insisting the opposition remove him first is a nonstarter for them, and he warned against "hastily swearing in a government with terrorist supporters," the language he uses for the Arab-led parties, per the Los Angeles Times. On Saturday he said a coalition between opposition parties and Arab lists, which he called Islamists, would "dismantle the State of Israel from within," according to Al-Monitor. We covered a connected angle in Politics Meaning: Why Political Language Uses 'Meaning' as a Weapon. For related coverage, see Politics Meaning: Why Political Language Uses 'Meaning' as a Weapon.
Eisenkot's Yashar party flipped the demand back at Likud, urging Netanyahu's allies to form a unity government led by Eisenkot and to "publicly announce the dissolution of their alliance with the extremists." The obstacles to a Netanyahu-Eisenkot grand bargain are structural, not just personal: Netanyahu depends on religious parties that demand the draft exemptions, and he opposes a formal investigation into the failures surrounding the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, per the Los Angeles Times.
What happens next, and by when?
The calendar is fixed and unforgiving. Eisenkot formally receives the mandate on Sunday, November 8, and has 28 days to produce a government, extendable by 14, according to Shafaq News. Eisenkot himself set the stakes in his first reaction: "Now is the time to form a national emergency government," he wrote on X. "I will do everything to ensure we are worthy."
The other pressure point is external. Herzog has signaled he would like to explore a national unity government spanning the political spectrum, and pressure for one could build if Netanyahu follows through on threats to resume war on Iran — though US President Donald Trump has not given the green light, RFI reported. Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that protesters gathered at Habima Square in central Tel Aviv calling for a change of government and a coalition that includes Arab parties, according to Shafaq News.
The next six weeks will show whether Eisenkot can convert a recommendation count into a sworn government, or whether Israel heads to fresh elections again.
